Abstract

Estimating the cost and real-time running of a project are of the worries of project managers. Obtained value management is a technique to answer these two important questions: how much is the final cost of a project? How long does the project take to complete? In the relationships existing in the obtained value system, the project performance is predictable only based on previous data and the future situations and conditions are not considered. Many methods have been proposed to address this constraint, but none of these methods fully considers future conditions and uncertainties. This paper offers a new method using determining the time, cost, and progress of the project in the form of fuzzy numbers to determine indices of value gained. To predict the results of the project more accurately, risk factors have been added to the fuzzy environment as well. This paper, first, explains some existing methods in brief, and then fuzzy methodology and risk factor are investigated.